CAIRO- 5 May 2025: Fitch Solutions has projected a steady upward trend for Egypt’s economic performance through fiscal year 2027/2028, driven by continued fiscal reforms and sound economic policy.
In a recent report, the agency forecasts a significant reduction in public debt, with levels expected to drop to 50.2% of GDP by fiscal year 2033/2034—marking a 12.5% decline from current figures. This improvement underscores the country's advancing fiscal sustainability and the tangible impact of structural reforms.
The agency’s projections are in line with government expectations of a sustained decline in both domestic and external debt, supported by stronger cash inflows and more efficient public finance management over the coming three years.
Fitch estimates that government revenues will grow by 38.5% over the period, outpacing the 30.6% increase in expenditures. This positive fiscal trend is expected to narrow Egypt’s budget deficit by 1.6% of GDP, according to a statement from the Egyptian Cabinet.
Meanwhile, recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that Egypt’s public debt declined to 89% of GDP by the end of fiscal year 2023/2024, compared to 95.7% a year earlier.
In a further sign of recovery, the Central Bank of Egypt reported that net foreign reserves rose to 47.757 billion U.S. dollars by the end of March 2025—an increase of 364 million dollars over the previous month.
Fitch has maintained Egypt’s long-term credit rating at “B” with a stable outlook and expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to fall further to 78.9% by fiscal year 2025/2026.
Mon, May. 5, 2025
