CAIRO - 21 October 2025: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its expectations for Egypt’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.5 % in the fiscal year (FY) 2025/26, up with 0.4% from its previous forecast, according to the Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report.
The IMF projects real GDP growth of 2.4% in FY2024, 4.3 % in FY2025, and 4.5% in FY2026.
Inflation is forecast to moderate significantly, declining from 33.3 % in 2024 to 20.4 % in 2025 and 11.8 % in 2026.
Meanwhile, the current account deficit is projected to narrow from –5.4 % of GDP in 2024 to –5.1 % in 2025 and –4.3 % in 2026.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 7.4 % in both 2024 and 2025, before edging slightly lower to 7.3 % in 2026.
The report indicates that economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to accelerate from 2.6 % in 2024 to 3.5 % in 2025 and 3.8 % in 2026, as disruptions to oil production and shipping ease and the effects of ongoing conflicts begin to subside.
The 2025 projection has been revised upward by 0.5 %age points compared to the April outlook, largely due to stronger-than-expected performance in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies, particularly Saudi Arabia, and in Egypt, where the Fund noted that economic activity in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations.
Globally, growth is projected to slow from 3.3 % in 2024 to 3.2 % in 2025 and 3.1 % in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 % and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 %. Inflation is projected to continue declining worldwide, though with variation across countries, remaining above target in the United States amid upside risks, while subdued elsewhere.
The report cautioned that risks remain tilted to the downside, citing prolonged uncertainty, rising protectionism, and labor supply shocks as potential drags on growth. It also warned that fiscal vulnerabilities, possible financial market corrections, and institutional erosion could pose additional threats to global stability.
Tue, Oct. 21, 2025
